AN UNPREDICTABLE SEASON: THE ECONOMY, BUSINESS, AND POLITICS Out of two months of cold, rain, snow and even tornadoes emerges a season of presumed spiritual peace: Passover and its meaningful Seder that brings family and friends together, and Holy Week with its contrasting days of Good Friday and Easter.

The symbolism and peace of Passover and Holy Week can be for many, to use an ol’ navy term, "anchors to windward" in this month of quixotic events and change. These events carry change and uncertainty that might optimistically be considered "works in progress" as the economy, business and politics advance to what many hope might be "predictable indicators" for the near and long term future.

What are these "works in progress" and how are they defining the "State of the Union" ten months before President Bush's final speech by that name? As in my avocation of watercolor painting, a sweep of brush and color can be one way to help produce a landscape. But even using broad brush and vibrant colors, the devil can be in the details of the final product.

In three areas of this unpredictable season, let us explore the uncertainties and potential solutions for the economy, business, and politics. Are there apparent solutions to problems, sole indicators of emerging stability in the nation and in Maryland, often called "America in Miniature"?

Home foreclosures and the credit crisis are reaching families and individuals trying to pay mortgages and meet the cost of living challenges of rising gasoline and home heating costs. On the macro level, the credibility of the Federal Reserve has been put on the line in the use of the Fed's powers to protect investors against a plunge in financial markets. The Bear Stearns syndrome serves as a recent example.

A related question: Is the stock market, with its quixotic ups and downs, going to settle down? Back in the 1929 crash, the market was the primary culprit. But, nearly 80 years later, the market is not the only story. NYSE and NASDAQ are just two parts of the economy, perhaps indicators of more that is going on. Why? In 2009 the markets are intertwined in the complexity of an increasing global economy where the import/export relationships of the U.S. to other global powers (such as China) have increasingly entered the picture.

As the outward and visible sign of the economy, business is essentially providing the products and services of the private sector. There are macro examples, eg: the Boeing/Northrup Grumman defense contract battle. And, here in Maryland, the struggle continues between government and the technology sector - specifically, the computer service businesses, many of them small and medium sized. The threat of a 6% computer service tax still looms over these businesses in a growing IT services sector. The danger of this tax could drive Maryland based businesses to more friendly territory in Delaware, Virginia and Pennsylvania.

But, in this unpredictable season, business may win out. An example in Maryland is the battle by the computer companies to continue being a productive part of this State's high tech sector. Evidence of this battle are two days of mass turn-outs from almost 1,000 company executives and employees, including strong warnings before General Assembly committees more comfortable in the environment of lobbyists and "deals", often without the discipline of fiscal limits that are required in running a successful service business.

Thanks go to coalitions of computer service businesses such as the Maryland Computer Services Association, organized and led by Tom Loveland, CEO of Mind of Machines - a truly "grass roots" business executive who is translating his commitment to a growing high tech sector into nonpartisan political action. This is an example of what democracy is all about. This "democracy in action" may result in Maryland's Legislature and Governor being pressed into helping economic development through products and services, results of work by businesses and professional firms. What is needed at the finish line after 90 days of "Annapolis talk"? The answer is simple: REPEAL of a penalty tax that justifies more fiscal discipline by government.

Finally, the most unpredictable part of this unpredictable season: politics. An endless presidential campaign was recently narrowed down to cross fire from candidate Clinton against the first strong opponent she has ever faced, Barak Obama, who has tried to place rationality before a shouting minister.

National politics continues to be dominated by the geometric growth of campaign spending. The cost of a 30-second television attack ad can go into the millions. Just think how much better the use of private contributions could be when applied to after-school reading programs for deprived inner city youth. As a specific example of a mistaken priority in youth education, there is a possibility of Congress cutting the Federal Government share of "Reading is Fundamental", a national private/public partnership that purchases books and trains volunteers to help children learn to read so that books and reading can become part of deprived children's lives. As a Board member and volunteer, I find it an honor to help RIF wake up the Washington politicians to the real needs of people.

Ending on the media "binge” note of sex and politicians:

Has there been a time count on the internet space, newspaper pages, and hours of television devoted to the Spitzer escapades, as "client 9" in Washington's Willard Hotel? Perhaps in the current approach of a more predictable spring season, the Easter bunny can get some equal time!  3:47 PM •  0 Comments •