Danger for the Democrats? After the split results from Iowa and New Hampshire, it now looks entirely possible that ‘Tsunami Tuesday’ Feb 5, when 22 states hold their primaries, might not decide the democratic nominee for president. The race would move to Maryland and Virginia which hold primaries the next week. Assuming the race between Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton remains up in the air, the role of the party’s super delegates, consisting of its elected officials and party leaders will start to loom over the selection process.

It is not surprising that race has emerged as a sticky issue in the democratic primaries. Barack Obama is the first African American with a legitimate chance to win his party’s nomination. What is surprising is that Hillary’s campaign was responsible for bringing the issue into the public debate with her clumsy comments about Martin Luther King and potential first husband Bill’s reference to Obama’s positions being a “fairy tale”.

Hillary and Bill have to be extremely careful in criticizing Obama. Even Hillary’s campaign message that her experience should trump Obama’s message of hope carries with it the subtext that Obama needs to wait his turn. This condescension is guaranteed to raise the ugly image of a black man not being ready for the White House.

New Hampshire demonstrated the power of identity politics when Obama patronized Hillary as being “nice enough”. Both this episode and Hillary’s emotional moment motivated women to come to the polls in unprecedented numbers for Hillary and enabled her to claim an upset in a state that she had been leading by more than 20 points a few short months ago.

Democrats have relied on black votes to win races around the country and bring them the presidency. With Obama having a real chance, blacks will be able to vote for one of their own notwithstanding Bill Clinton’s prior support in the black community. So, criticizing Obama carries grave hazards for Clinton and the party.

If Clinton wins but she is perceived to cross a racial line in her criticism of Obama, black voters may feel burned. And if the super voters end up choosing her as the party’s nominee, blacks might believe that their best hope got the shaft by the party’s leaders.

Even the Clinton’s record with the black community might not be enough to overcome the resentment that might engender. It probably won’t mean that blacks will vote for the republican candidate, but they could stay home in critical swing states like Ohio, Michigan and Illinois.

With a small turnout of black voters in those states, even in a year when the political winds are strongly behind the democrats, could result in democrats snatching defeat from the jaws of victory next November.

Labels: Hillary Clinton, Obama, politics, Race

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