July Campaign Follies The contrast between what Barack Obama and John McCain were doing this week tells a lot about the state of the two campaigns. While Obama was on a rockstar-like tour of the Middle East, McCain was in Baltimore (hardly a GOP bastion) for a fund raiser at the Center Club.

Obama was trailed by the three network anchors, and his meetings were front page news.

Meanwhile, McCain and his Maryland supporters couldn’t even fill the room in the cozy confines of the Center Club, which is hardly the kind of venue one would associate with a presidential fundraiser. The Maryland GOP spun the fundraiser saying that even though just 200 people attended, the event raised over $1 million dollars. Their economic analysis of the fundraiser is as fuzzy as McCain’s economic plan- even at the maximum of $2,300 a head. At best they raised about half a million dollars, which is 1/100th of what Obama was able to raise in June.

According to David Nitken at the Sun, McCain’s refrain at his Center Club soiree was that he knew how to “win wars”. McCain has contrasted his support for the successful surge in Iraq and “winning” there with Obama, who, on his plane dubbed “O Force One”, has proposed getting out of Iraq in 16 months and putting more military oomph in Afghanistan.

Instead, however, the challenge for the next president may be how to win a war with Iran.

The not so quiet talk is the growing likelihood that Israel will conduct a pre-emptive strike against Iran’s nuclear facilities. The window for such an attack is narrowing as Iran continues to improve its air defenses with weapons purchased from Bush’s buddy, Vlad Putin. And, as with previous attacks against Iraq’s and Syria’s nuke facilities, the Israelis won’t ask for permission from the U.S. before bombing. They will also know that the Bush Administration would support such an attack – which is another reason why Israel may want to act before the new president takes office next January.

Israel has to be hopeful that Arab countries, which are equally fearful of a nuclear Iraq, will be quietly supportive; and that Iranian moderates will be emboldened to take down Ahmedinejad and the religious radicals.

But it’s a big gamble. Iran will retaliate. Iraq, which appears stable now, may see its Shiite majority rise up to support their Muslim brothers in Iran and attack U.S. forces. Other countries in the region may be drawn in despite intentions to the contrary. At the least, the price of oil will rise dramatically over fears of supply disruptions. Get ready for $200/barrel and $6 gas.

Beyond that, all that is clear is that the next president will have a hell of a mess on his hands.

And as far as McCain’s boast at the Center Club this week that he knows how to win wars, he just may get a chance to win another.  9:18 PM •